What USASpending shows, what it does not show, and the verified record behind 5.5 years of OUSD R&E engagement. This is archaeology, not accusation.
Ch 1 names the structural shift: pure services firms valued at 0.8-1.2x revenue vs. software platforms at 3.0-5.0x. The gap is not hypothetical. "A $50 million pure services firm might sell for $40-60 million. The same revenue with a product component could command $75-125 million." NorthAI spent 5.5 years delivering intelligence-analytics services inside OUSD R&E. That delivery history is the archaeology source. This memo surfaces what is confirmed, what is structurally plausible, and what still needs Tim's clarification to close.
Two facts sit alongside each other without contradiction.
Fact 1 (verified): CHN Analytics LLC holds one confirmed prime federal award: AFWERX STTR Phase I contract FA8649-21-P-0756, $49,500, awarded 2021, direct prime. UEI HGMHPZK5GED3. This is the complete verified footprint in USASpending.gov under that UEI.
Fact 2 (stated): On the discovery call, NorthAI described 5.5 years of continuous engagement with the Office of Special Intelligence and Analysis (OSI&A) inside OUSD R&E, beginning approximately 2018. The engagement involved technology scouting, intelligence analytics support, and dataset mapping across the DoD R&E enterprise (15K+ RDT&E project mapping referenced).
These two facts are not contradictory. They point to a third fact: the bulk of the 5.5-year engagement almost certainly did not flow through CHN Analytics as a prime. It flowed through a prime contractor that carried CHN as a sub, or through a non-standard vehicle (cooperative agreement, user agreement, CRADA) that does not appear in USASpending prime-award data.
| Field | Value | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contract number | FA8649-21-P-0756 |
USASpending.gov + SBIR.gov | VERIFIED |
| Awardee legal name | CHN Analytics, LLC (formerly Chapel Hill North Group Ltd) | SAM.gov UEI lookup | VERIFIED |
| UEI | HGMHPZK5GED3 |
SAM.gov | VERIFIED |
| DUNS | 556422140 | Historical SAM record | VERIFIED |
| Award type | SBIR/STTR Phase I, AFWERX | SBIR.gov program database | VERIFIED |
| Award amount | $49,500 | USASpending.gov | VERIFIED |
| Award date | 2021 | USASpending.gov | VERIFIED |
| Contracting office | AFWERX (Air Force Research Laboratory) | Contract award data | VERIFIED |
| Performance address | 6452 Branch Hill Miamiville Rd, Loveland, OH 45140 | SAM.gov registered address | VERIFIED |
| Size status at award | Woman-owned small business, ~12 employees (2021) | SAM.gov certifications at time of award | VERIFIED |
| OSI&A / OUSD R&E engagement (2018-2023) | 5.5 years per discovery call; scope: technology scouting, R&D mapping, intelligence analytics | discovery call (NorthAI founders direct statement) | UNVERIFIED VIA PUBLIC RECORD |
| Prime contractor for OSI&A work | Unknown. SOSi/Exovera (ISR/OSINT) are plausible. Booz Allen Hamilton and Noblis also plausible. No public prime-award link to CHN found. | B3 research stream, 2026-05-28 | OPEN QUESTION |
USASpending shows $49,500 in prime awards against UEI HGMHPZK5GED3. A 5.5-year engagement with OUSD R&E should, in a typical sub-of-prime structure, generate sub-award FSRS records. Why don't they appear?
Four structural explanations, ranked by probability:
The absence of a public prime-award trail does not diminish the value of the 5.5-year engagement. It actually reinforces a key Ch 4 (Contract Archaeology) finding: the IP that was produced inside that engagement has never been packaged, documented, or priced as a transferable product. It lived inside the delivery. That is exactly the archaeology opportunity this engagement exists to surface.
The AFWERX STTR is separately valuable as the anchor for a Phase II D2P2 commercialization path. It establishes CHN Analytics as a DoD-recognized innovator with a direct-award relationship to AFRL. That is a non-trivial standing.
graph TB NORTHAI["NorthAI
defense brand
Product IP: NorthStar, Tech Vector, Defense BD
5.5yr OSI&A domain knowledge
growth lead"] CHN["CHN Analytics LLC
US legal entity, UEI HGMHPZK5GED3
AFWERX STTR prime awardee
SAM-registered, WOSB certified
co-founder"] OUSD["OUSD R&E / OSI&A engagement
2018-2023, ~5.5 years
technology scouting + intel analytics"] PRIME["via prime contractor(s)
prime identity: OPEN QUESTION"] PHASE3["Phase III sole-source CLIN
15 USC 638(r)(4)
direct CHN prime path"] AGENCY_BUYER["Agency CO
OPD-DE / DIB / AFWERX"] NORTHAI --> OUSD CHN --> OUSD OUSD --> PRIME CHN --> PHASE3 PHASE3 --> AGENCY_BUYER classDef brand fill:#E6EFFE,stroke:#3B82F6,color:#1E3A8A,stroke-width:1.5px classDef legal fill:#E5EBD9,stroke:#788C5D,color:#4F6638,stroke-width:1.5px classDef engagement fill:#F0EEE6,stroke:#87867F,color:#3D3D3A,stroke-width:1.5px classDef open fill:#F8E3D6,stroke:#D97757,color:#B85C3E,stroke-width:1.5px,stroke-dasharray:5 3 classDef blueBrand fill:#DBEAFE,stroke:#3B82F6,color:#1E40AF,stroke-width:2px classDef engagementGray fill:#F3F4F6,stroke:#6B7280,color:#374151,stroke-width:1.5px class NORTHAI brand class CHN legal class OUSD engagement class PRIME open class PHASE3 blueBrand class AGENCY_BUYER engagementGray
The Phase III branch is the direct path under 638(r)(4)(B) sole-source authority. The prime-sub branch remains a parallel option for non-Phase-III work.
The B3 research stream found no confirmed prime-award link between SOSi, Exovera, or Booz Allen and the specific OUSD R&E OSI&A program from 2018-2023. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence in this context: classified and sensitive program awards are routinely not visible in public search, and OSI&A's technology scouting function sits adjacent to several programs that do not publish award data on USASpending.
What the sub-of-sub structure matters for:
Until those answers are in hand, the engagement strategy treats the OSI&A footprint as domain credibility and the AFWERX STTR as the federal-award anchor. No artifact makes a claim about the 5.5-year engagement that goes beyond what the call transcript supports.