Federal Posture Lead · Award Archaeology
Book 1 · Ch 1 · The End of Pure Services

Federal Award Footprint Memo

What USASpending shows, what it does not show, and the verified record behind 5.5 years of OUSD R&E engagement. This is archaeology, not accusation.

1.1 · Federal Posture Lead · artifact id: federal-award-footprint-v0.html · 2026-05-28 · v0 · REAL CONTENT · GOVCON
From Shrink-Wrap It, applied to NorthAI

Ch 1 names the structural shift: pure services firms valued at 0.8-1.2x revenue vs. software platforms at 3.0-5.0x. The gap is not hypothetical. "A $50 million pure services firm might sell for $40-60 million. The same revenue with a product component could command $75-125 million." NorthAI spent 5.5 years delivering intelligence-analytics services inside OUSD R&E. That delivery history is the archaeology source. This memo surfaces what is confirmed, what is structurally plausible, and what still needs Tim's clarification to close.

Headline: $49,500 verified + 5.5-year engagement hypothesis

Two facts sit alongside each other without contradiction.

Fact 1 (verified): CHN Analytics LLC holds one confirmed prime federal award: AFWERX STTR Phase I contract FA8649-21-P-0756, $49,500, awarded 2021, direct prime. UEI HGMHPZK5GED3. This is the complete verified footprint in USASpending.gov under that UEI.

Fact 2 (stated): On the discovery call, NorthAI described 5.5 years of continuous engagement with the Office of Special Intelligence and Analysis (OSI&A) inside OUSD R&E, beginning approximately 2018. The engagement involved technology scouting, intelligence analytics support, and dataset mapping across the DoD R&E enterprise (15K+ RDT&E project mapping referenced).

These two facts are not contradictory. They point to a third fact: the bulk of the 5.5-year engagement almost certainly did not flow through CHN Analytics as a prime. It flowed through a prime contractor that carried CHN as a sub, or through a non-standard vehicle (cooperative agreement, user agreement, CRADA) that does not appear in USASpending prime-award data.

Verified Record Table

Field Value Source Confidence
Contract number FA8649-21-P-0756 USASpending.gov + SBIR.gov VERIFIED
Awardee legal name CHN Analytics, LLC (formerly Chapel Hill North Group Ltd) SAM.gov UEI lookup VERIFIED
UEI HGMHPZK5GED3 SAM.gov VERIFIED
DUNS 556422140 Historical SAM record VERIFIED
Award type SBIR/STTR Phase I, AFWERX SBIR.gov program database VERIFIED
Award amount $49,500 USASpending.gov VERIFIED
Award date 2021 USASpending.gov VERIFIED
Contracting office AFWERX (Air Force Research Laboratory) Contract award data VERIFIED
Performance address 6452 Branch Hill Miamiville Rd, Loveland, OH 45140 SAM.gov registered address VERIFIED
Size status at award Woman-owned small business, ~12 employees (2021) SAM.gov certifications at time of award VERIFIED
OSI&A / OUSD R&E engagement (2018-2023) 5.5 years per discovery call; scope: technology scouting, R&D mapping, intelligence analytics discovery call (NorthAI founders direct statement) UNVERIFIED VIA PUBLIC RECORD
Prime contractor for OSI&A work Unknown. SOSi/Exovera (ISR/OSINT) are plausible. Booz Allen Hamilton and Noblis also plausible. No public prime-award link to CHN found. B3 research stream, 2026-05-28 OPEN QUESTION

The "Missing Money" Question

USASpending shows $49,500 in prime awards against UEI HGMHPZK5GED3. A 5.5-year engagement with OUSD R&E should, in a typical sub-of-prime structure, generate sub-award FSRS records. Why don't they appear?

Four structural explanations, ranked by probability:

  1. Sub-below-the-FFATA-threshold. FFATA sub-award reporting is required only when the prime contract exceeds $30,000 AND the subaward itself exceeds $30,000. If CHN's task orders were structured as small individual orders below reporting thresholds, sub-award visibility disappears from the public record. Consistent with an R&E program that runs many small-dollar intelligence-support tasks.
  2. Non-standard vehicle. OUSD R&E regularly executes work via cooperative agreements, user agreements, and joint funding agreements that do not produce USASpending prime-award records. If the OSI&A engagement ran through one of these instruments, zero public trace exists regardless of total dollar value.
  3. Sub-of-sub structure. If CHN was two layers below the prime (prime → large sub → CHN), no FSRS record appears at either layer unless the intermediate sub was itself a large prime vehicle. This is common in intelligence programs where the visible prime holds a classified IDIQ.
  4. SBIR Phase II D2P2 path. The $49,500 AFWERX Phase I may have been a stepping stone to a Phase II that either was not awarded or was awarded under a separate vehicle (OTA, Phase II SBIR) not yet visible in the public record.
What this means for the productization thesis

The absence of a public prime-award trail does not diminish the value of the 5.5-year engagement. It actually reinforces a key Ch 4 (Contract Archaeology) finding: the IP that was produced inside that engagement has never been packaged, documented, or priced as a transferable product. It lived inside the delivery. That is exactly the archaeology opportunity this engagement exists to surface.

The AFWERX STTR is separately valuable as the anchor for a Phase II D2P2 commercialization path. It establishes CHN Analytics as a DoD-recognized innovator with a direct-award relationship to AFRL. That is a non-trivial standing.

Partnership Stack Diagram

graph TB
  NORTHAI["NorthAI
defense brand
Product IP: NorthStar, Tech Vector, Defense BD
5.5yr OSI&A domain knowledge
growth lead"] CHN["CHN Analytics LLC
US legal entity, UEI HGMHPZK5GED3
AFWERX STTR prime awardee
SAM-registered, WOSB certified
co-founder"] OUSD["OUSD R&E / OSI&A engagement
2018-2023, ~5.5 years
technology scouting + intel analytics"] PRIME["via prime contractor(s)
prime identity: OPEN QUESTION"] PHASE3["Phase III sole-source CLIN
15 USC 638(r)(4)
direct CHN prime path"] AGENCY_BUYER["Agency CO
OPD-DE / DIB / AFWERX"] NORTHAI --> OUSD CHN --> OUSD OUSD --> PRIME CHN --> PHASE3 PHASE3 --> AGENCY_BUYER classDef brand fill:#E6EFFE,stroke:#3B82F6,color:#1E3A8A,stroke-width:1.5px classDef legal fill:#E5EBD9,stroke:#788C5D,color:#4F6638,stroke-width:1.5px classDef engagement fill:#F0EEE6,stroke:#87867F,color:#3D3D3A,stroke-width:1.5px classDef open fill:#F8E3D6,stroke:#D97757,color:#B85C3E,stroke-width:1.5px,stroke-dasharray:5 3 classDef blueBrand fill:#DBEAFE,stroke:#3B82F6,color:#1E40AF,stroke-width:2px classDef engagementGray fill:#F3F4F6,stroke:#6B7280,color:#374151,stroke-width:1.5px class NORTHAI brand class CHN legal class OUSD engagement class PRIME open class PHASE3 blueBrand class AGENCY_BUYER engagementGray

The Phase III branch is the direct path under 638(r)(4)(B) sole-source authority. The prime-sub branch remains a parallel option for non-Phase-III work.

Prime contractor candidates. The B3 research stream surfaced four firms with the capability profile and OUSD R&E relationship pattern that could plausibly have carried the OSI&A engagement: Booz Allen Hamilton (rank 1, OUSD relationships + ISR depth), Noblis (rank 2, DoD/OUSD research and analytics focus), Strategic Analysis Inc (rank 3, tech foresight + defense analysis), and SOSi / Exovera (plausible, ISR/OSINT capability fit but no public contract link found). Full scoring lives on the prime relationship status artifact.

Sub-of-Sub Theory and What It Changes

The B3 research stream found no confirmed prime-award link between SOSi, Exovera, or Booz Allen and the specific OUSD R&E OSI&A program from 2018-2023. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence in this context: classified and sensitive program awards are routinely not visible in public search, and OSI&A's technology scouting function sits adjacent to several programs that do not publish award data on USASpending.

What the sub-of-sub structure matters for:

Open Verification Questions for Tim

Three questions that close the archaeology loop
  1. Was the 2018-2023 OSI&A work sub-of-prime under the AFWERX STTR vehicle, or did it run under a separate IDIQ or task order? If a separate vehicle: what is the prime contractor name and, if possible, a contract number or vehicle name?
  2. Do you have a UEI or CAGE code for the prime, or a name you can share? This allows verification of whether a prime-to-sub relationship exists in FSRS records that are not yet public. (Some classified records appear with a lag.)
  3. Can you share a redacted copy of one task order SOW or deliverable acceptance document? Not for external use. For internal archaeology only: to confirm the scope of what was delivered and how it can be packaged without competing against the prime's scope.

Until those answers are in hand, the engagement strategy treats the OSI&A footprint as domain credibility and the AFWERX STTR as the federal-award anchor. No artifact makes a claim about the 5.5-year engagement that goes beyond what the call transcript supports.